VIDEO | "Trump puts pressure on Ukraine and shows openness towards Russia". Analyst Ion Tăbârță's warning: Moscow will once again turn winter into a weapon of war

The war in Ukraine has little chance of ending in the coming months, as neither Moscow nor Kiev are ready to accept the other side's conditions. This is the opinion of political scientist Ion Tăbârță, who claims that the administration of US President Donald Trump has fundamentally changed Washington's approach to the conflict, moving from supporting Ukraine to an intermediary position that, in his opinion, favors the Russian Federation. In an interview with journalist Valentina Ursu, the analyst states that Trump is trying to achieve a peace agreement, including by exerting pressure on Kiev, while Vladimir Putin shows no signs of intending to give up the war. Tăbârță warns that Russia could once again use the cold season to put pressure on Ukraine and believes that possible conditions for real negotiations could only appear in the spring of next year.

Valentina Ursu, journalist: "Can we hope that the day when peace will be negotiated is not far off?"

Ion Tabarta: "I don't think we will have peace this year, because that subjective context has not been created for the war to end. Any war requires certain conditions to be ended. For now, we don't have these conditions. For example, for the parties to be exhausted, to no longer want to continue, to no longer be able to continue. We don't see either the fact that the Russian Federation or Putin would want to give up this war, or that Ukraine would be ready to give in. In fact, Ukraine has already given in, because it agrees to end this conflict on the front line. Now, we see that Russia is demanding more. Initially, even the Ukrainians did not want to make any kind of agreement as long as they did not liberate all the territories conquered by the Russian Federation since 2014."

The analyst believes that Washington's efforts to reach an agreement are also influenced by the internal political calculations of the American administration.

"What we have now is more related to a certain electoral-political context in the United States. Trump wants to get this agreement at any cost, even at the expense of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian people will not give in. Trump believes that the problem is with President Zelensky. I don't understand, in fact, this way of ending the conflict or war on the terms of the Russian Federation is not desired and accepted by the Ukrainian people, but not by Zelensky personally.", said the expert.

In Tăbârță's opinion, the difference between the approaches of the Biden and Trump administrations is essential.

"Trump, in general, has had a change of position towards the Biden administration or, if we talk about the US position. In 2022, when it was the Biden administration, the US was a state that supported Ukraine to resist Russian aggression. The Trump administration has changed the US position in this war. It has transformed it from a supporter of Ukraine into an intermediary, but an intermediary that rather plays on the side of the Russian Federation", he emphasized.

The analyst also explains the logic on which he believes the American president's negotiating strategy was based.

"Trump's logic was simple. We put pressure on the weak, Ukraine, especially since it depends on us, and, on the contrary, we show openness towards the strong, namely the Russian Federation. That was Trump's logic, that Russia is strong, Ukraine is weak. And, in a somewhat transactional way, he tried to conclude a peace agreement. Ukraine did not give in, Russia is not able to achieve what it wants militarily, and here we have this deadlock", explained Tăbârță.

Under these conditions, the expert does not anticipate a peace agreement during the winter, but does not rule out a change in the situation in the first part of next year.

"This winter we will not have any agreement concluded. Russia will again try to turn winter into an instrument of war, as it did last year. Maybe next year, in the spring, when the situation on the front line will be clearer, when the internal political context in the United States will change, it is possible then to create those objective conditions to reach a peace agreement. But, at least in the next half a year, I do not think it is possible to reach any concluded peace", concluded Ion Tăbârță.