Politico: Moldova could be separated from Ukraine in the EU accession process. Chisinau, far ahead of Kiev in Brussels' assessments

The Republic of Moldova could advance much faster than Ukraine in its negotiations to join the European Union, which could lead to the separation of the two countries' European paths. According to a European Commission document, consulted by Politico, Brussels estimates that Moldova could provisionally conclude negotiations on over 20 chapters in 2027, while Ukraine could only complete seven. At the same time, the Commission avoids setting a deadline for Kiev's accession to the EU.

The document is part of the package on the enlargement of the European Union, scheduled for presentation on Wednesday, November 4. It shows that although the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine have so far gone through the main stages of the accession process together, the differences between the pace of reforms and the ability to meet European requirements could determine a separate evolution of the negotiations.

right Politico, the European Commission is preparing a more cautious roadmap for Ukraine, with limited objectives for 2027. The document calls on the Kiev authorities to urgently and significantly accelerate reforms in the area of ​​the rule of law, emphasizing that the fulfillment of essential requirements in the first half of next year is necessary for the provisional closure of negotiations in certain areas.

The seven chapters in which Ukraine could make sufficient progress for the provisional conclusion of negotiations in 2027 are education and culture, intellectual property, employment and social policy, industrial policy, research, external relations, and foreign and security policy.

The first of these, education and culture, could be closed in the first half of the year, while the other six are scheduled for the second half of 2027.

The situation in Moldova is presented in a different light. According to the document cited by Politico, Chisinau would have the opportunity to provisionally complete negotiations in over 20 chapters during the same year. The difference shows that the Republic of Moldova is considered capable of advancing at a considerably faster pace than Ukraine, opening the prospect of the two accession processes being separated.

The two countries obtained candidate status for accession in June 2022 and officially opened negotiations with the European Union on the same day, in June 2024. So far, Brussels has largely pursued a common path for Chisinau and Kiev.

In the case of Ukraine, the difficulties are amplified by the war unleashed by Russia. Ukrainian authorities must adopt and implement complex reforms while managing the country's defense, the destruction caused by Russian attacks, and the pressure on state institutions.

The European Commission recognises that reforms require time, resources and extensive consultations. To support the Ukrainian authorities, Brussels has set up a specialised working group to provide further assistance in the process of alignment with European legislation.

At the same time, the document does not set a deadline for the conclusion of Ukraine's accession negotiations, a cautious approach also applied to other candidate countries, including the Republic of Moldova and Albania. An exception is Montenegro, for which June 2027 is indicated as the target for signing the accession treaty.

Politico points out that Ukraine's admission to the European Union would also raise complex security issues, given that the country is at war. Although EU law does not explicitly prohibit the accession of a state engaged in a military conflict, Ukraine's integration would involve questions about territory, security, and mutual assistance obligations assumed by other member states.

Even concluding a peace agreement would not automatically eliminate these difficulties, nor would Kiev's obligation to complete reforms.

The European Commission also aims to open negotiations by the end of 2026 for the two groups of chapters of Ukraine that have remained blocked: the green agenda and sustainable connectivity, and resources, agriculture and cohesion.